Analysis
“2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus - Realclearpolitics.” Real Clear Politics, 2023, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/ia/2024_iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-8164.html#!
Desantis is doing better financially than most other candidates in Iowa besides Trump. Desantis similarly to previous winners of the Iowa Caucus is trying to appeal to the evangelical base in the state that has often helped decide the winner of the Caucasus. Despite these attempts and the $15 million raised to stabilize his campaign, DeSantis is still trailing behind Trump by around 30 points. The Never Back Down super PAC for DeSantis believes there will be 217,000 republicans to caucus in Iowa, 30-35% locked in for Trump. They have local chairs in all 99 counties and will continue trying to appeal to the evangelical base in Iowa that makes up a large percentage of those 217,000 caucusing republicans.
Burns, Dasha. “Ron DeSantis Prepares to Pour Millions into Iowa Ad Campaign.” NBCNews.Com, NBCUniversal News Group, 12 Oct. 2023, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-prepares-pour-millions-iowa-ad-campaign-rcna119113.
Knowles, Hannah, et al. “DeSantis Is in Growing Trouble. He’s Betting Big on Iowa to Rescue Him.” Washington Post, 2023, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/21/desantis-iowa-2024-republicans-presidential/.
Nehamas, Nicholas, et al. “DeSantis Gets a $15 Million Cash Infusion and Moves Staff to Iowa.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 4 Oct. 2023, www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/us/politics/desantis-iowa-fundraising.html.
Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe. “Nikki Haley : Favorability Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 28 Nov. 2023, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/nikki-haley/r/.
Nikki Haley has built a campaign on her excellent debate performances and capitalized on her favorability with republicans. Her favorability as of late October had her being favorable with around 48% of respondents. Haley has also built her campaign strategy in Iowa based around the victories by state races here in Iowa. She hired Kim Reynolds 2018 campaign manager and 2022 Chuck Grassley’s field director in Iowa. This in addition to her favorability gives her a good chance of continuing to build ground and possibly surpass DeSantis. Haley despite being third in funding, pulling in just $11 million in the third quarter, is neck and neck with DeSantis in recent polling which is showing the positive effects of her debate performances and the influence her campaign manager and field director have within the state.
Pfannenstiel, Brianne. “Nikki Haley Expands Iowa Footprint as Debate Performances Fuel Momentum.” The Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 9 Oct. 2023, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2023/10/09/nikki-haley-expands-iowa-footprint-looking-to-overtake-ron-desantis/71069316007/.
Wright, David, and Fredreka Schouten. “Nikki Haley Raised $11 Million in Third Quarter, Making Fundraising Gains in Her Fight to Emerge as a Leading Trump Rival | CNN Politics.” CNN, Cable News Network, 9 Oct. 2023, www.cnn.com/2023/10/09/politics/nikki-haley-fundraising-third-quarter/index.html.
Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe. “Vivek G. Ramaswamy : Favorability Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 28 Nov. 2023, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/vivek-g-ramaswamy/r/.
Vivek arguably being the most outspoken candidate in the caucus, has been leading to big changes in his favorability and unfavourability. In July, Ramaswamy was only seen as favorable by around 38% of participants and saw a big jump in recent months to 48.5% as of November. The downside to this is that his unfavourability has risen to 21.1%. Ramaswamy is behind in the polls, being under 5%, which leaves him as one of the lowest polling candidates in the caucus. His largest problem is that he is not the first choice or even the second choice for a good number of caucus goers. Ramaswamy has around 19% of the vote considering him as a candidate, but consideration will not be enough to help him. To help change this Ramaswamy has taken most of his team’s effort out of their Ohio headquarters and dispersed his 40-team staff among Iowa and New Hampshire. This change is necessary to help improve his footing in Iowa if he is to continue his campaign.
Gruber-Miller, Stephen. “See How All 9 GOP Presidential Candidates Perform with Likely Caucusgoers in New Iowa Poll.” The Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 30 Oct. 2023, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/10/30/iowa-poll-shows-how-much-support-donald-trump-ron-desantis-nikki-haley-gop-candidates-have/71328322007/.
Wren, Adam. “Ramaswamy Ditching Ohio Headquarters, Sending Staff to Iowa and N.H.” POLITICO, 11 Nov. 2023, www.politico.com/news/2023/11/11/ramaswamy-campaign-shakeup-00126661.
“Iowa : President: Republican Primary : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 21 Nov. 2023, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/.
President: Republican Primary : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 21 Nov. 2023, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/.
Trump statistically has the least to worry about out of all the candidates. Back in August Trump held a 42% favorite in Iowa and has since risen to around 45%. While continuing to hold this large lead, the second-place favorite, DeSantis, has only dropped in the polls. If Trump continues to hold a large gap over his opponents, then there will be no doubt that he will win Iowa. Additionally, Trump’s campaigns claims to have $36 million to spend in primaries for the election and raised $45.5 million in the third quarter alone. Not only is Trump leading in the polls he is also leading in fundraising. DeSantis only raised $15 million in the third quarter, which is only a third of Trump’s. If Trump continues remain at the same level in the polls and continues to out fundraise his opponents, then he will for sure remain the clear favorite in Iowa and for the rest of the GOP primaries.
Milligan, Susan. “Trump Holds Massive Lead in Iowa – for Now - U.S. News.” US News, 21 Aug. 2023, www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-08-21/trump-hold-massive-lead-in-iowa-for-now.
Schilke, Rachel. “Trump’s Early Dominance in Iowa Pushing Rivals out of State.” MSN, 17 Oct. 2023, www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-early-dominance-in-iowa-pushing-rivals-out-of-state/ar-AA1imWSC.
Theoretical Caucus Delegate Projection
Delegates are proportionally allocated to Presidential contenders based on the statewide vote. Each candidate receives (candidate's statewide vote) × 40 ÷ (total statewide vote) delegates. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If there are too few delegates allocated, the candidate nearest the rounding threshold receives the additional delegate. If too many delegates are allocated, the candidate furthest from the threshold loses a delegate. [Bylaws Article VIII.1]
Theoretical turnout with 585,418 active Republicans in November 2023 if the caucus was held today:
121,182 (2008 style turnout) 20.7%
115,913 (2012 style turnout) 19.8%
178,552 (2016 style turnout) 30.5%
Delegate Projections as of Nov. 30th: Margin of Error (+- 5.9)
Trump: 54% - 96,418 votes/ 21.6 ~ 22 Delegates (48.1-59.9% / 85,883-106,953 Votes/19.24-23.96 19~24 Delegates)
DeSantis: 18% - 32,139 votes/ 7.19 = 7 Delegates (12.1-23.9% / 21,605-42,674 Votes/4.84-9.56 5~10 Delegates)
Haley: 12% - 21,426 votes/ 4.79 = 5 Delegates (6.1-17.9% / 10,892-31,961 Votes/2.44-7.16 2~7 Delegates)
Scott: 2% - 3,571 votes/ .8 = 1 Delegate (0-7.9% / 0-14,105 Votes/0-3.16 0-3 Delegates
Ramaswamy: 6% - 10,713 votes/ 2.4 = 2 Delegates (.1-11.9% / 178-21,247 Votes/0.04-4.76 0~5 Delegates)
Christie: 3% - 5,357 votes/ 1.2 = 1 Delegate (0-8.9% / 0-15,891 Votes/ 0-3.56 0~4 Delegates)
Burgum: 1% 1,786 votes/ .4 = 1 Delegate (0-6.6% / 0-11,784 Votes/ 0-2.64 0~3 Delegates)
Hutchinson: 0.5% 893 votes/ .2 = 0 Delegates (0-5.9% / 0-10,534 Votes/ 0-2.36 0~2 Delegates)
Unallocated: 1 Delegate