The race has been unique for former President Trump, very untraditional and odd in any way you want to look at it. Despite the trials, the lack of participation in debates, and his reputation from his last term, he continues outperforming his GOP competitors in the polls and at the bank. The question is not whether Trump has a following in Iowa but how strong the following is. As of August 2023, 46% of republican caucus goers consider themselves Trump mega supporters, while only 23% are anti-trump. His polls continue to rise despite the trials, the unwanted media coming his way, and even getting outspent in Iowa.
Trump is using the trials as a platform and a shield at the same time. While campainging in Clive, he said “I am willing to go to jail if that’s what it takes for our country to become a democracy again." Despite the success of Trump’s campaign, he is facing the reality of being put on trial at least seven times in the upcoming year. This is causing a problem as it is interfering with key event appearances. The former president is being charged in four different states with criminal charges and is facing three separate civil suits. As an article from the TIMES states, “If the trial dates stay the same, Trump could clinch the GOP presidential nomination before voters learn whether he has been convicted on any of the charges, raising new questions about the logistical and political challenges of multiple trials unfolding against the backdrop of a presidential campaign.” Despite all the press coverage of Trump being overwhelmingly negative, his popularity only rose, which could be attributed to the seeming unwillingness of his competitors to attack him or distinguish themselves at risk of alienating the base.
Right now, it is a waiting game. Will Trump’s success continue with his overwhelming support in Iowa? Will he come out on top? Or will his support crumble as the trials start to heat up? If he can ride his support through the Iowa caucus, he will likely ride it through the primary season and become the party’s nominee.
Bibliography
Huynh, Anjali. “Trump Dominates in New Iowa Poll.” The New York Times, August 21, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/us/politics/trump-poll-rating.html.
Pfannenstiel, Brianne. “Nearly Half of Crucial Iowa Caucusgoers Call Themselves ‘Maga Republicans’ Supporting Trump, New Poll Says.” USA Today, August 28, 2023. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/08/28/trump-iowa-poll-gop-caucus-maga/70702446007/.
Popli, Nik. “Key Dates for Donald Trump until Election Day.” Time, August 31, 2023. https://time.com/6301429/donald-trump-cases-election-timeline/
“Trump Is Crushing His GOP Competition in Polls - and Cash.” POLITICO. Accessed November 2, 2023. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/15/trump-fec-polls-funding-00121681
Beaumont, Thomas, and Jill Colvin. “Trump, Campaigning in Iowa, Vows to Ban Gaza Refugees from Us If He Wins a Second Term.” AP News, October 17, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iowa-caucus-2024-election-c8f0ff23b1a39fb4e2b7aee9da15f0ed
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